Reena Agrawal

Research Economist

image of mortgage rates

Inflation, Mortgage Rates, and the Lock-in Effect

After the December 2023 meeting, many investors and analysts had predicted six rate cuts and rapidly declining mortgage rates that would not only ease supply but bring back many homebuyers to the market and that housing affordability would improve. Many had anticipated a rate cut as early as March 2024. After the Fed’s January 2024 meeting, the odds of a March rate cut have declined significantly due to data showing continuing strength in the U.S. economy.

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Man pushing a bolder up the debt mountain

Consumer Debt is Growing

Data released by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in their Quarterly Report on household Debt and Credit shows that consumers added $228 billion in debt from Q2 2023 to Q2 2023 to reach $17.29 trillion. The debt burden increased by 4.8% or $786 billion from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023.

Consumer Debt is Growing Read More »

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Will Mortgage Rates Fall Enough to Unlock the Frozen Housing Supply?

At 7.79% in October 2023, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached its highest level since 2001 according to Freddie Mac data, but since then it has been experiencing a downward trend. The rate was at 6.66% on Jan 11th, 2024, 33 basis points higher than its level a year ago. However, mortgage rates have been at the 6.6% level for the last four weeks as economic data continues to show a strong economy.

Will Mortgage Rates Fall Enough to Unlock the Frozen Housing Supply? Read More »

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