Reena Agrawal

Research Economist

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Mortgage Rates Jump as Iran War Pushes Oil and Inflation Higher

The brief optimism that emerged in the housing market at the start of 2026 has quickly faded. Mortgage rates have surged back above 6% as rising oil prices, inflation concerns and shifting Fed expectations push borrowing costs higher. The result is a market once again constrained by affordability, where demand is pulling back and activity is slowing.

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How Affordability Is Drawing the Housing Map in 2026

The U.S. housing market is becoming increasingly regional as 2026 approaches. While affordability and steady demand are supporting several Midwest and Northeast metros, many Sun Belt markets are grappling with slowing prices after years of rapid growth. Understanding local supply, demand, and affordability conditions is now essential for buyers, sellers, and investors alike

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Fed Cuts Rate But Signals No Guarantee of More Easing

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to its lowest level in three years in an effort to support a cooling labor market. While inflation remains contained, policymakers are divided on whether another rate cut in December is warranted. Mortgage rates have already fallen to a one-year low, but further declines will depend on upcoming economic data and inflation trends.

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