The housing market remains constrained by affordability challenges and a limited supply. As we move into 2024, the question arises: will there be a significant shift, or are we likely to experience more of the same? While the Federal Reserve has hinted at three rate cuts for 2024, the anticipated impact on mortgage rates may not be substantial enough to break the existing pattern of limited housing inventory and affordability issues. The consensus among experts suggests a subdued outlook for the housing market in 2024.
Veros
Veros’ projection anticipates a 2.4% rise in house prices from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024, with mortgage rates expected to average 6.7% by the end of the year. This is not expected to significantly alleviate supply constraints or improve affordability.
Realtor.com
In 2024, with mortgage rates averaging 6.8%, homebuyers will experience reduced pressure to hurry against escalating borrowing costs. As a result, house prices are projected to dip by 1.7%, following a 3% increase in 2023. Additionally, the volume of homes available for sale is expected to decline by 14%.
Goldman Sachs
Existing home sales are expected to experience a slight decline, while new home sales are projected to see an increase, and house price growth is projected to be muted at 0.6% this year.
Redfin and Zillow
Redfin and Zillow project that prices will remain flat in 2024. Redfin forecasts that mortgage rate will average 6.6% by year end, and home sales will jump 5%.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae expects a 2.4% rise in prices versus Freddie Mac’s projection of a 2.7% gain. Both expect mortgage rates in the 6%-7% range for 2024.
National Association of Realtors
NAR anticipates a 0.9% gain in house prices, with mortgage rates at an of average 6.3% this year.
