Economy

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Mortgage Rates Jump as Iran War Pushes Oil and Inflation Higher

The brief optimism that emerged in the housing market at the start of 2026 has quickly faded. Mortgage rates have surged back above 6% as rising oil prices, inflation concerns and shifting Fed expectations push borrowing costs higher. The result is a market once again constrained by affordability, where demand is pulling back and activity is slowing.

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Fed Cuts Rate But Signals No Guarantee of More Easing

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to its lowest level in three years in an effort to support a cooling labor market. While inflation remains contained, policymakers are divided on whether another rate cut in December is warranted. Mortgage rates have already fallen to a one-year low, but further declines will depend on upcoming economic data and inflation trends.

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Inflation and Labor Market Trends: What They Mean for Housing in 2025

The latest U.S. inflation and labor market data reveal a challenging balance for the Federal Reserve. While CPI held steady at 2.7% in July, core inflation accelerated to 3.1%, and producer prices jumped, limiting monetary flexibility. At the same time, weak job gains, rising unemployment, and stalled labor participation are pressuring policymakers toward rate cuts, with major implications for mortgage rates and housing affordability through late 2025.

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