The U.S. Housing Market Hotness Index rose to 86.36 for the week ending February 22, 2026, up from 84.61 the previous week. The increase reflects renewed momentum driven by declining mortgage rates and modest improvements in affordability as we move closer to the spring homebuying season. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East introduce fresh uncertainty. Escalating conflict could drive up energy prices and, in turn, reignite inflationary pressures. If inflation expectations rise, mortgage rates could follow suit, potentially dampening the current rebound. Whether the conflict proves short-lived or prolonged, and how significantly it impacts global energy markets will be critical factors to watch. It is important to note that the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4%. In periods of heightened uncertainty, investors typically move into U.S. bonds, pushing prices up and yields down. This time, that pattern has not materialized. Instead, yields have risen as investors price in the possibility of higher inflation ahead.
Regionally, Santa Clara, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties in California continue to rank among the hottest housing markets in the country. Monroe County, NY, and Kent County, MI, also remain standout performers, reflecting strong demand relative to supply. On the other hand, parts of Florida and Texas continue to see more subdued activity. They are joined by the District of Columbia and Honolulu County, HI, where market conditions have remained softer compared to national hotspots.
*Index values are subject to revision as deemed necessary, contingent upon the receipt of new or updated data.
