The Housing Market Hotness Index ticked up to 93.01 for the week ending March 2, 2026, a modest increase from the prior week and a step up from the sluggish conditions that defined early February. The current gains are less a sign of strength and more a reflection of how far the market had fallen. Lower mortgage rates briefly fueled a sense of cautious optimism, helping bring buyers back into the conversation just as the spring season approached. But that momentum is already starting to slip.
After dipping below 6% in late February, mortgage rates have now climbed for four straight weeks. While still below last year’s levels, it’s happening at a critical moment. What initially looked like the beginning of a spring revival is now at risk of stalling before it fully takes hold. Markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of another rate hike, while rising geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding war are weighing heavily on consumer confidence.
At a regional level, Santa Clara, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties remain among the hottest markets in the country, along with Monroe County, New York, and Snohomish County, Washington. Meanwhile, markets across sections of Florida and Texas, along with Davidson County, Tennessee, and Honolulu County, Hawaii, continue to experience more muted housing activity. But even in the stronger regions, the same question looms—how long can this momentum really last?
*Index values are subject to revision as deemed necessary, contingent upon the receipt of new or updated data.
