August 18, 2025

The latest U.S. inflation and labor market data reveal a challenging balance for the Federal Reserve. While CPI held steady at 2.7% in July, core inflation accelerated to 3.1%, and producer prices jumped, limiting monetary flexibility. At the same time, weak job gains, rising unemployment, and stalled labor participation are pressuring policymakers toward rate cuts, with major implications for mortgage rates and housing affordability through late 2025.