In January 2024, the U.S. unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, maintaining its level from the previous month, despite the backdrop of additional layoff announcements. Contrary to the expectations of many experts who foresaw a modest increase in unemployment, the United States added 353,000 jobs, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The impressive hiring spree observed in January, coupled with an uptick in wage growth, significantly diminishes the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing an interest rate cut in the immediate future.
Despite notable layoff announcements by major companies such as UPS, Google, Citigroup, EBay, DocuSign, Microsoft, and Amazon, sparking concerns of a potential wave of job cuts, January’s data revealed positive trends in employment. The professional and business services sector experienced a notable gain of 74,000 jobs, indicating resilience in this domain. Other sectors contributing to job growth included a rise of 11,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality, and approximately 45,000 jobs added in the retail trade sector. Moreover, January witnessed robust wage growth, with average hourly earnings increasing by 4.5% year over year. This suggests that the robust labor market may lead the Federal Reserve to wait longer before cutting rates.
Since 2022, when the Federal Reserve initiated interest rate hikes, the pace of the housing market has significantly slowed down. Despite this, the economy has maintained its strength, propelled by robust hiring and sustained consumer spending. During his interview on 60 Minutes, Federal Reserve Chair Mr. Powell acknowledged positive strides in addressing inflation but emphasized that there is more work to be done. Powell stated that the Fed seeks greater assurance that inflation is consistently trending down to the target of 2% before considering any rate cuts.
